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In a blog post from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, economists argue that AI optimism could hinder productivity and act as a news shock that shapes household and business decision-making. The authors, Fed economists Miguel Faria-e-Castro and Serdar Ozkan, explain that when households see a news shock like AI adoption, they interpret it as a sign of a future pay raise, spending more today on the assumption that more money will come down the line. The same logic holds true for businesses: If you were to buy into the promise of miracle innovation—cutting the cost of labor and boosting productivity—you’d increase investment in that product. All of that enthusiasm leads to inflation in the short term as demand outpaces supply.